Mag 7 Evaporates $2 Trillion | Rewire News Morning Edition
The frontlines of Iran and Ukraine are crossing. In the same week that Russia equipped Iran with Starlink drones, Ukraine bombed 40% of Russia's oil export capacity. The capital markets finally understood: this is not two isolated conflicts, but a merging global risk network.
1｜Convergence of Two Wars: Ukraine Bombs Russian Oil Port, Russia Equips Iran with Starlink
This week, Ukraine launched consecutive drone strikes on Russia's three major oil export ports. Primorsk on March 23, Ust-Luga on the 25th, and the Kirishi refinery on the 26th. Reuters estimates that about 2 million barrels per day of export capacity were taken offline, accounting for 40% of Russia's total export capacity, marking the "most severe oil supply disruption in modern Russian history."
In the same week, Fortune reported that Russia is providing Iran with an upgraded version of the Shahed drone, including an AI computing platform, jet engine, Starlink communication capability, and anti-jamming devices. Western intelligence indicates that Russia is also providing Iran with real-time satellite positioning of US military assets. On the other side, Ukraine signed a security agreement with Saudi Arabia to share anti-drone technology, and Zelensky made a secret visit to the UAE and Qatar.
Pittsburgh University political science professor Spaniel said, "We are not yet in a real-world war," but the belligerents of the two conflicts, weapons supply chains, and intelligence networks have already intersected. Washington is also considering transferring some of the Ukrainian military aid to the Middle East. (Continued from yesterday's report)
(Source: Fortune / Reuters / Moscow Times / FPRI / Time)
2｜Mag 7 Evaporates Over $2 Trillion, Market Prices In First Rate Hike of the Year
The Magnificent 7 collectively evaporated over $2 trillion in market value from their all-time highs. Microsoft dropped 32% from its peak in October last year, marking its worst start to a year in company history. Meta fell by 25%, Alphabet by 15%, Nvidia and Amazon turned negative for the year. The S&P 500 fell for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest losing streak since the beginning of 2022.
The futures market saw a crucial reversal in expectations. Traders pushed the probability of a rate hike this year to 52%, surpassing the 50% threshold for the first time. The Atlanta Fed tracker shows a 19.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. The Fed kept rates unchanged at its March meeting, but Powell expressed "concern" about inflation progress. Global forecasting agencies have raised CPI expectations to 4.2%, well above the Fed's 2.7% forecast. EY-Parthenon raised the probability of a US recession to 40%.
Institutional funds are shifting from tech growth stocks to energy, defense, and domestic manufacturing. The Mag 7, which saw 107%, 67%, 25% growth over the past three years, now have all seven stocks in the red for the year. The issue is not just oil prices; it's that $650 billion in AI investments has become a burden during a tightening cycle.
(Source: Fortune / CNBC / Yahoo Finance / EY-Parthenon / Atlanta Fed)
3｜Anthropic Warns Government: Mythos Model Makes Large-Scale Cyberattacks "More Likely"
Anthropic is privately warning U.S. senior officials that its unreleased "Mythos" model makes a large-scale cyberattack "more likely" by 2026. The company previously accidentally leaked information about the model due to a CMS system failure, then confirmed that Mythos is the "most powerful model to date," representing a "step-change in capability."
Axios reports the model as "far surpassing any other AI model in cyber capabilities," allowing the agent to "autonomously penetrate enterprises, governments, and municipal systems with astonishing precision." A Dark Reading survey shows that 48% of cybersecurity professionals consider agent AI the top attack vector for 2026, surpassing deepfakes and all other threats. Cybersecurity stocks fell in response, with comments from Evercore.
QuantBit concurrently reported Claude discovering a 20-year-old system vulnerability in just 90 minutes. These two events point to the same inflection point: the rate of growth of AI attack capabilities has outpaced defense capabilities. Frontline labs are no longer just selling products; they are redefining who can breach whom.
(Source: Axios / Fortune / CNBC / Evercore / QuantBit)
4｜Roche Bets $2.75 Billion on AI Pharma, Traditional R&D Timeline Rewritten
Roche signs a $2.75 billion AI pharma agreement with Hong Kong-based Engitix AI, making an initial payment of $115 million for global exclusive development and commercialization rights. Engitix AI has developed 28 drugs using generative AI, with nearly half in clinical stages. The two companies have been collaborating since 2023, aiming to compress the timeline from target discovery to new drug application from traditional years to months.
This is the largest single AI pharma deal for a major pharma company. Previous AI pharma transactions have mostly focused on research collaborations and milestone payments, but Roche has acquired commercialization rights outright, essentially valuing the AI drug pipeline with traditional pharma valuation logic. STAT News notes that Engitix AI's key strength lies in concurrently using AI for target discovery and molecule design, parallelizing the two most time-consuming steps. When AI is not just an auxiliary tool but the pipeline itself, the valuation logic of the pharmaceutical industry may be rewritten.
(Source: CNBC / Bloomberg / STAT News)
Also Worth Knowing ↓
CLARITY Act Stablecoin Yield Compromise Reached, DeFi Tokens Face Headwinds. Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks Reach Principled Agreement: Passive Holding Yield Banned, Active Rewards Preserved. Protocols such as Uniswap, Aave, dYdX may face constraints. Banking Committee Deliberation set for late April. Stablecoin legislatively redefined from speculative tool to payment tool, DeFi yield models undergoing structural adjustment. (Source: CoinDesk / Congress.gov)
Musk Warns US Chip Capacity to Surpass Power Supply, China Doesn't Have This Problem. He stated at Davos in conversation with BlackRock CEO Fink that the fundamental limiting factor for AI deployment is power, chip capacity growing exponentially but power unable to keep up. Limiting factor shifting from chips to energy, bottleneck of AI arms race transitioning from the supply chain to the grid. (Source: Fortune)
Southeast Asia Stablecoin Payments "Invisibilization," Cryptocurrency Card Business Surges. Users no longer interact directly with crypto assets, stablecoins embedded in everyday consumer payments. This aligns with the direction of the CLARITY Act in positioning stablecoins as a payment tool, signaling the shift of crypto from speculation to infrastructure both in legislation and product. (Source: CoinDesk)
Cambridge University New Type of Memristor Chip Reduces AI Switching Power by Millionfold. New materials address energy consumption and accuracy bottlenecks of traditional memristors, potentially fundamentally altering the energy efficiency of AI inference. Still in the lab stage, but aligns with the direction and Musk's point that "power is the limiting factor." (Source: Tom's Hardware)
Trump AI Agenda Becomes Independent Midterm Election Issue for the First Time. New political group established specifically to advance AI policies into the 2026 midterm elections. AI governance transitioning from executive order phase to election politics phase. (Source: The New York Times)
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